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May 14, 2009



The possibility of the scenario is low for RMB to become a major curreny in the next decade. The reason is that it tooks two wars in the last century to establish US dollars. Without US military backing, the economic reasons alone would not determine the de facto reserved currency. Japanese Yan and Euro has much higher chance to be come the new reserve currency. IFM's basket is also a virtual currency that could manage some large transactions in the capital market. However, the US dollars is widely used in the Americans which include -- Canada, Mexico and Brazil .. These counties combined has a larger economy than China today and in the for seeable future.

Professor's job is to alert pepole for the possibility. Just like astrophysicist like to scare people of meteor collison of the earth and the geologist like to forcast deadly Earthquake in California would redraw the coastline. Health official like to scare people with HxNx virus. Yes the danger is there, but put things in perspective.. It is just poeple like to enlarge their circle of influence and have tendency to exagerate ;)

Tze-Chien Chu

Yes, in 1980 Japan YEN also has this kind of saying. Before 1980 , American use Car to drive the world, and latter they use Silicon and Software and Internet. Now ? As the the world is more open by Internet just like the Road that build by Roma. It also reduce the influence of the US. But it is not a bad thing. Because US is the most flexible country ever just like Apple ,IBM and 3M ,They will transform as the time go.
Japan has her change but she does not take it. Now it is China's chance, but I don't think she has the capability to leverage the world. It need not just money. It is the problem of mind not money.

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