黑暗時代來臨?

2008年9月時的金融風暴
我心中想到的是2次大戰和歐洲的黑暗時代
黑暗時代一般是指西元500年 羅馬陷落到西元1000年之間的500年
當然啦 我是太悲觀了點
工程師個性使然  Think the Worst,Do the Best
只是以目前的經濟數據來看
西方世界的生活方式背負了太多的債務
我稱之為向未來預支
以為認為薪水,技術,效率會不斷提升
因此我們可以先花掉未來的錢
就是太有自信的以為賺的回來
而目前這個比例太高了
賺1塊卻借3塊
除非1.大規模破產 2.忽然間薪水加3倍 不然
基本上這的問題 還是存在的
而看來大規模破產 是唯一的解決之道
日本在泡破經濟後苦撐10年
不要忘記日本人儲蓄率高
美國人呢? 我實在懷疑10年夠嗎?
或許他們還是專利大國 但是有用的專利有多少?
(就跟紅樓的創意市集 坦白說玩意市集還差不多
哪邊來的創意)
我已經3年沒見到令我感動的創意了(在IT,PC,3C)
(看到Apple的UI專利 說真的無聊到想哭)
(Window 7 唉那也叫創新會不會太容易了點)
當經濟秩序失序了 接下來是哪個秩序要失序?
要能在這場海嘯中全身而退
沒有再先前立下好的根基是有點困難了

PS.所謂容易是以微軟的市值來看
PS.所謂想哭是UI都能宣告專利了 還真是沒啥東西好玩了
PS.DRAM廠有很多很多專利 LCD廠也是
專利只剩下工程上的政治絆腳石的目罷了

PS.或許老美會被迫接受大量倒閉 這樣復甦得速度會比日本快很多 畢竟文化還是不一樣

Comments

[Fred]

There are many exciting new technologies on the horizon (no iphone is not one of them !!). The crash of 08 is the failure of financial market in the area of securitization and derivatives (all innovations based on bad assumptions). It was a bubble burst just like the dot com bubble. Yes, it would take a long time to recover, however I do not think it is lack of innovation or too much debt. The economy will cool down for the next couple of years and it will regain its strength due to population growth in the thrid world countries, continously efficiency improvement in IT and biomedical-engineering which leads to longer and healthier life of the developed world population. A new break through in propultion technology is needed to project human beyond the Earth. A new energy generation based on fusion would completely eliminate the dependency of fossil fuel. Genetic research will develop real "cure" for cancer and cardiovescular diseases.. It is not going to be done in a few year, but decades of hardworks.. No the future is very very bright if we learn to survive the hard time :)

[Tze-Chien Chu]

Well,All these "Good Stuff" have been heard for too long.
From my experience those "new technology" with loud noise. Always lead us to no where. All the Big event come from "No where". So ...