For the next 12 months I would stay away from risky assets. I would stay away from the stock market. I would stay away from commodities. I would stay away from credit, both high-yield and high-grade. I would stay in cash or cashlike instruments such as short-term or longer-term government bonds. It's better to stay in things with low returns rather than to lose 50% of your wealth. You should preserve capital. It'll be hard and challenging enough. I wish I could be more cheerful, but I was right a year ago, and I think I'll be right this year too.
I am not disputing his dire predictions but I just want to say that all of what he said was NOTHING NEW so it should all be "priced in" to the market. 2009 could still be rather risky but risk come with high reward if you place your bet right. Since the equity and real estate market has become a cash only gamble, no wonder the real Casino in Vegas has a down year :)
Posted by: Fred | December 16, 2008 at 06:19 AM