關於經濟兩三事(12)

看到各國拼命向未來借錢 或是說亂印鈔票 想要透過消費來刺激經濟 是一件很好笑的事 經濟的成長不只是靠消費 經濟成長要有典範的改變 Paradiam Shift . 工業革命 汽車 生產線 半導體 電腦 網路 無線科技 DNA定序 這些都是重大的發現 他們改變農業生產的效率 工業生產的效率 交易的效率和溝通的效率 2004年後我感到是全球創意的枯竭(只是設計設計外殼外觀 不是影響總體經濟的重大創意) 所以這波的經濟衰退將會很久很久 因為我看不到一個令人興奮的典範的改變 Paradiam Shift  或許這個Shift 應該不是經濟上的 而是心靈上的Shift 吧 可以肯定的是面對蕭條 回歸家庭和宗教將會再度熱門

Comments

[Fred]

Paradigm shift is continuous with no clear watershed moment or event. You can only observed the long lasting effect after the impact has been done several years later. For example, the high oil price last Summer has created a temporary paradigm shift in automobile industry toward smaller more energy efficient cars but it may not last as the oil price dropped in the Fall. The bad habit is hard to kick. Returning to family and religion is also a continuous development in the US (especially in the South). Family and Religion are huge part of the social fabric if not 60% of your life after work. Each football game starts with a prayer. Sport/hobbies perhaps occupied the rest of 40%. Religion here also form a different style of entertainment for the minds and soul. Technology will still lead the next wave of paradigm shift in both biomedical or information.