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October 13, 2008

Comments

Fred

The Western goverments are taking risk for the banks which is a temporary solution. As long as Japan, China and Saudi keep buying US Treasuries and EU bonds, the current banking system could barely survive. The good news is that Oil price has come down to 80 dollars/Bl (local gas in 2.89 US a gallon) which is close to what is was a year ago. The bad news is the housing price around the world keep on falling so the near term prospect of a recovery is slim.

I think this choppy water is good for traders who sell into the big up day and pickup after the great losses. Do not catch a falling knife is the market wisdom. Another one to keep in mind is that Bulls and Bears make money but Pig (greed) get slaughtered. Do not believe in a V shape recovery as the road to recover is long and trecheous. In fact we have not even seen a credible solution yet. More cards (banks and countries) are going to fall before this is over.

I have good faith in the people of Taiwan and its private sectors should be able to weather the storm. However, I have little faith in the R.O.C. goverment as it is still head under sand. The concern is that this adminstration is going to drag everybody down the tube since there is no balance of power in a crippled democracy.

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