關於經濟兩三事(9)

我有個理論是這樣
銀行貸款給公司和個人
然後將這些貸款也就是風險
包裝成商品出售
到這邊還OK
問題是剛開始這些商品(風險)
品質都還不錯
但是越到後來這些商品的品質越來越差
(風險越來越高)
所以忽然間大家都不敢要了
但是那些卻是支撐這個市場的很大的力量
這是信心問題也不是信心問題
因為風險過高高到不能只靠信心ㄚ所以沒人敢接
因此銀行不再貸款
這股活水停掉後 當然一切就垮了
央行以為再多灌水就好了
但是事實是很多企業個人的風險並未解除
例如過高的房屋貸款 賣到新興世界的設備
開了很多很多為了美麗未來的工廠
這些都是風險轉嫁到貸款股票及其他延伸金融
我們是把整個社會建立在一顆叫風險的汽球上
希望有一天我們有能力解除這顆炸彈
在我們有能力解除或是說我們應該解除前
可惜他爆炸了(人老是要等到事後才說早知道!)
所以呢 如何回復?
一般的作法就是再吹一個 只是這個先由政府擔保
(我們叫振興方案)
再50年前或許可以 但是21世紀的今天
很多財富都因為自由化的因素分散到民間
國家舉債來做比50年前來的辛苦多了
而且要做啥呢 ?
我們需要更多的道路?橋?學校?
可惜 人口在下降 !
因此我認為

振興方案應該以全球為藍圖
而不是以單一國家來看
畢竟全球化,能源危機,氣候變遷,水源不足
都是跨國界的問題
值的投資去做 全球性的金融危機應該有全球性的思維才對
其實真的就是把餅做的大一點(不必做到火星去 哪邊沒人)
說真的如果有這樣的方案 我會對未來的經濟超級有信心
哈哈忽然有好多想法

先來個6兆美元(60億x1000USD)　找些全球的金頭腦來　找出哪些是重要且必須而且有利於後代子孫而且困難的工程！這樣應該可以救全球的經濟了　我是認真的

Comments

[Fred]

I think you are correct about most of the points on the current economic crisis. The fundamental problem is "lack of safe investment options".

The sub-prime mortgage is fuled by huge surplus in the capital market (35 trillons USD according to IMF) in 2001. These are the saving of the world from oil recipts in Arab countries, China/Japan trade gains to the pension funds of the Western countries saved over the last 50 years. This huge sum of money found its way to stock market and bond market where the finicial genius make them think it is safe by repackaging these low quality loans as good ones. Does it not sound like the "poisionous milk product" from China?? When things are going well until late 2007, this global pool of money (on paper) grew to 75 trillion USD!! Now, there is really no additional goods and services that worth that much!! So people start realizing this is just a ballon ready to pop and soon the valuation of the stock and bond and house start to crash. Yes, this is ineed a global issue as all of the banks in the world are involved in this scheme.

Too much money chasing too few good investment oppourtunity is the root of the problem. Who is to say that the goverments will be able to do a better job selecting the investments for the future? We do not need extra 6 trillion dollars of goverment investment as there are already 40 trillion (after the crash) of cash sitting on the sideline. People are always persuing a better quality of life for their own and their family. Space travel is like early air-travel of the last century. As businesses retrenched, future technology in biomedical research and IT will continue to improve and increase productivity. This free up people's time to explore beyond his/her limited existance.

During relatively peaceful time of the last 60 years, the large encomic cycle continues to boom and bust. As the Chinese saying -- "When thing reach its peak it must Reverse". The world will not end due to bank failures or country defaults. The dangers is that uneven wealth distribution can cause social unrest and further distroy the economic value system. You can spend 6 trillion in wars that can destroy all infrastructures of the world or you can use it to build something of vaule for all mankind. Since we are living in the "Rocket City", we would like the world to spend more money on Space Exploration. A space race is good for economy!!