PS.本文的計算是在2006年 因為石油上漲或許電費會提高或是太陽能板的價格會下跌都會改變計算的結果
* CALCULATION: 2 KW complete PV system installed in Phoenix quoted at $16,000 (before any tax rebates or incentives, grid-intertie only,NOT including battery storage)(5). In Phoenix (optimal location), this generates 4,000 KW-hours of electricity per year (5). At prevailing Phoenix rate of electricity ($.10/KW-hour) this is $400/electricity per year. This produces a pay-back time of 40 years if we do not account for the time-value of money. For the purposes of this calculation I will be very conservative and find that actual inflation will equal TVM over this 40-year period. The quoted PV panels have a life-expectancy of 40-years (again, this is conservative as this “complete” system ignores battery storage, which would dramatically decrease the aggregate life expectancy). The resulting price-estimated EROEI of PV solar is 1:1.
The solar power energy producing over 40 years will certainly above its production energy consumption. But I would say the calculation is not meaningful. His solar power economic calculation has pointed out a fact that the current fossil fuel / nuclear / hydro/ wind based electric generation is far cheaper than solar (without subsides). The main advantage of solar is distributed energy generation (no transmission lines). The killer for the solar is the battery and the cost of repairs. There are hurricanes, tornado, hail storms, i.e. the elements of God. I am not surprised that more than 50% of Taiwan's wind mills are out of commission. It is very hard (expensive) to keep large structure outdoor and generate so little energy. We need at least 1G Watts plant to spread the cost of maintenance so the economic will favor a large concentrated plant. Unless there is a major breakthrough in technology, solar PV system will remain a niche play, which is still a billion dollar business!
Posted by: Fred | July 08, 2008 at 07:48 AM