關於未來經濟一點看法

首先先說我的Backgroud吧 我是搞電子,電腦程式的 但是在2004年後我就有一種產業創意漸漸消失的感覺 小創意有但是重大的Creation卻沒有 4-Bits,8-Bits,ARM. PC,Internet,Mobile. CGI,Flash,AJAX. 覺得很多創新都停下來了 不過是更快更大卻不是更好用更安全更有有人性. Modem,ADSL,3G,Wifi,WiMax 其實都沒啥不同 速度越快越賺不到錢 我覺得主要的一個因素是Market錯誤 過去的Marketing以為人口越來越多 所以只要不斷的以年輕族群為主就好了 過去也認為經濟會不斷的成長 收入會越來越多 消費也會越來越多 但是很可惜那段日子過去了

目前的情況 我認為只有回歸基本產業才有更多的創新 老人照護會延伸出Robot,Smart Prediction AI,Smart Mechenical System . 能源會延伸出Smart Battery (Know how many charge it has and had give out)不同的Enegry Delivery Method 農業會延伸出更好的更精確的氣候預測與保存方法

過去這些費用占我們的所得不高 但是未來會越來越高 但是越來越高也帶來這些產業越來越進步的機會

2008 6-6 Update:
我評估的方式其實很簡單就是產品的Diversity 有越多種類(不同Idea.不同目標)的產品的產業就是一個向上的產業　當然啦　平坦的產業也不錯例如汽車電視　但是這些產業沒有外力的影響下不會自我演化　向上的產業是因為新所以不知道演化的方向所以可以產生很多Diversity 另外所有的產業當然是一定不可能一值向上最後一定會平坦　只是如何Create更多的向上的動力　我覺得找問題是最大的關鍵 有好問題自然有錢景　

Comments

[Fred]

All of the high-tech products are mostly used as a transformation agent for the age-old problems/needs. It is an enabler but not the essential for people's life. In the developed country, people spend a fraction of their income on food, energy cost and shelter (home) so there is a large discretionary money to be spend on gagets to improve the quality of their lives. Many young Taiwanese generation living off the wealth of the older generation has a similar life-style. The recent trend in the rise of the engergy cost and the food cost causes inflation. The discretionary spending is reduced so it appears the "gain" in processor speed and network connection speed has no tangible value anymore.

On the other hand, hi-tech is the only mean human know to transform the engery shortage and food shortage problem we have today. It means that more money will be directed toward solving the engergy efficiency, food distribution and smarter healthcare than just building a ever faster computer or network feed. There is always a fashion element in the hi-tech just like the clothing and accessories industry. As you stated in your previous post, the breakthrough technology is always a way to transform the problem to one that is easier/safer/cheaper to solve than the old one.

Lighting is a perfect example. The evolution start from candel to kerosene lighting to tungsten incandecent bulb to compact florecent to LED light bulb. People still use all these products in different setting and applications. The old product will not go away if you give it different meaning. For example candles are used in the ambience setting in bath house and resturants. On the other hand if you have a hard to reach place that need lighting, LED would be the lastest choice as you do not need to change it for 30 years. Most of the traffic light in our town has moved to LEDs for the energy saving and durability.