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December 05, 2006


Fred Chu

There is another factor in the tour bus accident that cannot be ignored. The risk tolerance of the Taiwanese is higher comparing with other developed countries. All accidents occur because of a chain of rare events. The reason for a high fatality event is due to a large number of under-reported near misses and smaller accidents. People just assume they are lucky and moved on. The advantage of a high risk-tolerant society is the vitality of a survival economy. Japan is a lower risk-tolerant country where the vitality of economy is lowered. This social behavior has something to do with the average age of the population. As the people aged, risk adverse behavior is what you've described in the "open market" scenario. I do not believe this tour group leader is a fool. He must have considered various choices before signing the contract with the bus company. It is a gamble everyone plays in every day of their lives without knowing all the risk factors until later time (or ever). The society will adapt (by learning from other's mistakes) eventually. However, those who do not read history will repeat it over and over again. I am glad to see your shopping behavior changed over the year by learning from your own “mistakes”. --FC

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